2.2 The Hypothesis

The goal in creating a test hypothesis is to to complete the following formula:

“I think that changing XX into XY will have this impact”

Based on the survey observations in the previous lesson, the hypothesis statement in this case became:

“I think that changing the ‘cost’ of this ebook from a tweet to an email subscription will cause an increase in the conversion rate.”

Similar to any public profile, people can be reluctant to tweet about something to all of their followers (especially if it’s a personal account where the subject matter may be off-topic with what they usually tweet).  Also, not everyone has a Twitter account, but everyone has an email address.  These factors all support the possibility that asking for visitor email addresses could be more successful than asking for a visitor to tweet.

As you can tell from this example, creating a testing hypothesis doesn’t need to be a daunting task, and research is key.  It can tell you when you’re delivering the wrong marketing message, and it provides insight into opportunities that could change your business.  Once you’ve done your research, you can formulate your own hypothesis using the initial formula:

“I think that changing XX into XY will have this impact”


Allowing visitors to pay with an email address rather than a tweet resulted in a 24% conversion lift.